Geopolitical Risks
Structural, long-duration risks that could fundamentally alter Oman’s development trajectory. These are not cyclical disruptions but deep forces operating on multi-decade timescales – the kind of risks that demand scenario planning rather than reactive policy adjustment.
Peak Oil Demand Risk models the fiscal and economic consequences of a secular decline in global hydrocarbon consumption, quantifying the timeline within which Oman’s diversification must deliver self-sustaining non-oil revenue. Climate Change in the Gulf assesses the physical risks – extreme heat, water stress, sea-level exposure – that threaten infrastructure, labour productivity, and habitability across the Arabian Peninsula. Regional Conflict Escalation examines scenarios in which broader Middle Eastern instability disrupts shipping lanes, deters investment, or forces reallocation of fiscal resources toward defence.
Each risk profile includes scenario analysis, estimated impact horizons, and an assessment of Oman’s current mitigation posture.