Non-Oil GDP Share Tracker

KPI Status 🟡

Indicator Analysis

Non-oil GDP share is Vision 2040’s flagship diversification metric. Rising from 61% (2017) to 70.5% (2023) represents genuine progress — approximately 9.5 percentage points in 6 years. However, the remaining 21 percentage points to the 2040 target of 91.6% requires roughly 3 times more progress in 2.4 times the remaining period.

On-target trajectory would require: Approximately 1.6 percentage points per year from 2023 to 2040. Actual pace (2017-2023): Approximately 1.6 percentage points per year.

On face value, the trajectory appears on track — but this conceals a critical complication: the early gains may have been the easier gains (gas sector development, construction growth, tourism recovery post-COVID). The later-stage gains — moving from 80%+ to 91.6% — require developing genuinely new industries in competition with global incumbents.

Key Risks to Target

1. Oil price volatility: High oil prices increase the denominator (total GDP) even as non-oil grows, potentially reducing the share
2. Green hydrogen delay: If the $30bn green hydrogen pipeline does not convert to production by 2035, a major new non-oil sector contribution is lost
3. Omanisation failure: If private sector Omanisation does not improve, non-oil sector growth is limited by labour cost economics

Positive Signals

Tourism recovery to OMR 3.2bn (2023) and logistics growth through ASYAD’s port expansion are concrete, measurable contributions to non-oil GDP. Green hydrogen construction spending (2025-2030) will itself be a significant non-oil GDP contribution even before production begins.

Data Sources

This indicator is drawn from: official Oman Vision 2040 Progress Reports (IFU/Supreme Council for Planning), NCSI national statistics, and relevant international organisations (UNDP, World Bank, IMF, WIPO as applicable).

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